2008 Electoral College Projections:

This is my first 2008 Presidential Projection post. I have spent a considerable time the last couple months surfing polling websites for this year's Presidential Election. The best polls out there in my opinion are Rasmussen, Gallup, Pollster, Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirtyEight. Polls can mean very little at this junction of the election, but they do identify toss-up states. I expect to see Polls shift during the VP picks, conventions and debates. And I will certainly revisit and revise my projections closer to the elction.

A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to claim the presidency. For the first time this year, I run through the 50 states plus the District of Columbia and identify Obama States, McCain States and Toss-Up states. This year's election will hinge on two regions: Great Lakes and the Mountain West. If Obama can hold Kerry States (which he should) and win in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada that would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Michigan and/or Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. I hope you can bare with this long post as I go through each state. As things stand today I'm predicting an Obama win 291-247, and that's assuming Ohio goes to McCain.

TOSS-UP, 103 Electoral Votes: (EVs in Parenthesis). The outcome of the election will hinge on the results in these states.

Colorado (9), O+1: Bush won here in 2004 by 100,000 votes out of 2.1 million, but Colorado has shown a move towards the Democrats since then. In 2006, Democrats took over a Senate seat, the governorship, and a U.S. House seat and this year they are poised to pick up the second Senate seat. With the Democratic National Convention in Denver stirring liberal excitement, and the Latino vote favoring Obama, Colorado provides Obama a great chance to pick off a Bush state.

Florida (27), Mc+4: This state is teetering on Lean McCain, but keeps staying in the toss-up category. Florida is looking promising for McCain early on. The senior-citizen vote throughout the state will tilt strongly towards McCain because not only is he one of them, but older white voters will be hesitant to elect a young-black President. In addition, the veteran community will rally around McCain. I predict this will start to trend McCain's way as the fall campaign approaches, especially if Mccain picks Florida Gov. Charlie Crist as his VP. If Obama wins here then McCain can fagetaboutit.

Michigan (17), O+5: Pennslylvania and Michigan appear to be McCain’s best chances to win a Kerry state. McCain posted a strong primary performance here, while Obama boycotted the state. However, polls are consistently showing Obama with a slight lead. Michigan can quickly turn into a lean Obama state as the fall campaign approaches.

Montana (3), Mc+2: Clinton won this state in '92 thanks to a strong showing by Ross Perou, which pulled votes away from Papa Bush. Other than that, the state trends conservative. However, polls have consistently been close in this historically GOP stronghold. Montana voters like to take risks and are very open to a change candidate. Obama's appeal in the Mountain west is real and it may be enough to tip the state over to Obama. However, I'd still put my money on McCain.

Nevada (5), Even: Another prime chance for Obama to pick off a red state, Bush won only 50% in both elections. A significant libertarian turnout here is very possible. Immigration should play a role -- given the 20% Hispanic population. The question will be whether these voters can offset the conservative rural areas. Obama's mobilized and excited voters could be enough to tip the scales.

New Hampshire (4), O+3: New Hampshire was the only state Kerry managed to win back from the Bush-Gore election. The Granite State has seen a Democratic surge of late and that surge doesn’t look likely to slow down in 2008. McCain, however, has a sort of second home here, having won the state in the 2000 and 2008 primaries. His pragmatic moderation is appreciated here, but he will need to work very hard to peel himself away from Bush and the GOP. This state should stay blue in 2008.

New Mexico (5), O+5: Election Day ground zero could be New Mexico and it's northern neighbor Colorado. Bush carried the state in 2004 by 6,000 votes after having lost it by 365 votes in 2000. However, Obama has been polling very well here all summer. There has been a huge Democratic registration advantage and the state is 42% Hispanic. Obama has opened up a big advantage with Hispanic voters and I predict a big night for Democrats here where they should pick up a Senate seat, a few house seats and an Obama victory.

Ohio (20), Even: Like in 2004, Ohio looks to be another too close too call state. However, unlike in 2004, Obama's path to victory does not necessarily require winning Ohio thanks to his strength in the mountain west and Virginia. Both candidates have problems here: McCain is no Wal-Mart family-man conservative as Bush was, and these voters are holding the GOP responsible for the economic woes. But, Obama's perceived elitism, his race, and his liberalism will all hurt him here with rural voters, religious voters and gun-owners, all of whom voted for Clinton in the primary. Obama's chances lie in his campaign's ability to mobilize the pockets of wealthy suburbanites, black voters, and hardcore liberals. McCain will need to figure out how he will talk about trade and social issues.

Virginia (13), Even: There is much talk about Virginia as a Democratic pickup for 2008. Democrats hold the governorship and after November will probably hold both Senate seats. Democrats have made big advances in Northern Virginia as those suburbs have gained in wealth because of the growth of federal government. Add in a strong black vote near Richmond and Virginia Beach, and you see the reasons for Democratic optimism. However, many of the suburban moderates who have abandoned Bush and the Republican party may be drawn to McCain's moderation and turned off by Obama's Liberalism. Polls have shown Obama with a slight lead, but like Ohio and Nevada it really is anyone's guess how this state will break. Tim Kaine appears to be on Obama's short list. This may help break Virginia.

SOLID OBAMA, 161 EV:

California (55), O+15: Every four years Republicans talk about having a chance here. In truth, liberal, black, and college populations will turn out in droves for Obama, while Obama's popularity with Latinos and immigration resentment in San Diego and the Los Angeles area will hurt McCain.

Connecticut (7), O+20: Connecticut is liberal and Democratic, and a hawkish Republican is not going to do well. Not to mention, wealthy white liberals with advanced degrees are a big chunk of Obama’s base.

DC (3), O+55: Washington DC has two types of residence: African-American and rich liberal attorneys or lobbyiest. This could be a blowout of unprecedented proportions. Libertarian nominee Bob Barr could challenge McCain for second place.

Hawaii (4), O+30: Obama will dominate his native state in November as he dominated it in the Primary. McCain can save on airfare and reduce his carbon footprint by skipping this state.

Illinois (21), O +12: Obama’s home hasn’t been a swing state in a while, and this is not the year.

Maryland (10), O +20: The mixture of wealthy whites, college students, and urban blacks makes this Obama country.

Massachusetts (12), O+13: The Bay State is beyond the reach of any Republican. Obama might not fare as well in South Boston which is trending more conservative, but he won’t lose the home state of Liberal Lion Ted Kennedy.

New York (31), O+15: Obama will dominate. 'nough said.

Rhode Island (4), O +25: Welathy liberals. Rhode Island is even more liberal than Mass. Please, this one's out of reach for McCain.

Vermont (3), O +25: The heart of liberal hippiedom will vote for Obama.

Washington (11), O+15: The heart of liberal environmental greendom will vote for Obama.

LEAN OBAMA, 77 EV:

Delaware (3), O+9: Al Gore’s and John Kerry’s wins here in 2000 and 2004 were not dominant, and the Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner barely won reelection in 2004. This state will not be a blow out, but in a year of GOP stench, Obama will score a victory.

Iowa (7), O+10: Iowa's been a toss-up almost every election cycle, but this year it appears poised to switch to the Democratic column. Iowa, of course, was the state that catapulted Obama towards the nomination while McCain skipped it for New Hampshire. This swing state should swing back to where it was in 2000: the Democratic column.

Maine (4), O+8: Interestingly, the demographics here cut in both directions. Old white people tend to be McCain voters, but leisure-class New Englanders are Obama people. Gore didn’t get a majority here in 2000, because Ralph Nader posted 6%. Obama is the strong favorite here, but this one could drift in either direction with a strong McCain push.

Minnesota (10), O+10: The 2004 election was close as Kerry won by less than 100,000 votes, and McCain's independent-moderate reputation my help. However, Minnesota was one of Obama’s strongest states, thanks to a strong liberal core in the Democrat-Farm-Labor Party that will provide enthusiasm and turnout in November. This state may stay competitive throughout, but it’s likely Obama will pull away here by the fall. Note: If McCain picks moderate Gov. Tim Pawlenty as VP it could get very interesting.

New Jersey (15), O+10: Bush surged here in 2004, but not enough to carry the state. That was a one-time blip, and Obama should have no trouble carrying the Garden State.

Oregon (7), O+8: Despite it's neighbors to the North and South, Oregon is not a liberal state, and McCain has made it clear he intends to compete here. McCain will make some inroads with rural voters, but that will be offset by the excitement of the strong liberal populations, which carried Obama to victory in the primaries and will also rally around him in Nov.

Pennsylvania (21), O+6: Obama’s dismal primary performance here is a sign of trouble, especially among white voters. However, Philadephia's excited and mobilized black population and Gov. Ed Rendell's get out the vote machine should make Obama's margin of victory similar to John Kerry. And, since securing the nonination, Obama has polled very well. The Keystone State favors Obama, but the closeness here gives McCain a second way to win if Ohio or Nevada falls to Obama.

Wisconsin (10), O+9: This is a usually close battleground state where Obama actually looks stronger than Democrats in the past. He shores up the Nader vote and motivates the liberal base. The black population in Milwaukee help out, too. This state is very close to moving to the solid Obama category.

SOLID MCCAIN, 78 EV:

Alabama (9),Mc+20: McCain will be safe in this Deep South state.

Arkansas (6), Mc+14: With two Democratic Senators and 3 of 4 congressional Democrats, Arkansas is the Democratic stronghold of the South. Still, Obama will struggle in all Southern states, and this one is no more friendly than the others.

Idaho (4), Mc+14: This state is too pro-gun and pro-life to vote for Obama.

Kansas (6), Mc+20: Obama dominated the caucuses here, but a liberal Democrat isn’t going to carry this state in a presidential election, even if Obama picks Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as his running mate.

Kentucky (8), Mc+15: Obama's inability to win rural white voters in the primary here demonstrates that Kentucky is not in play this year.

Louisiana (9), Mc+19: Popular Rep. Gov. Bobby Jindal’s 2007 landslide victory was the beginning of a GOP avalanche until Democrats captured a Baton Rouge congressional seat in a special election this spring. Louisianians are not opposed to voting for Democrats. Still, this is now a GOP state like the rest of the Deep South, and they are not about to elect a liberal, pro-choice Democrat.

Nebraska (5), Mc+15: Nebraska apportions one elector per congressional district (3), plus two electors to the statewide winner. McCain should win all five electors.

Oklahoma (7) Mc+20: This very conservative heartland state is not in play. Easy win for McCain.

Tennessee (11), Mc+18: Clinton would have put this state in play, but the days of Democrats winning Tennessee are probably over, at least for now. Safe McCain.

Utah (5), Mc+30: Utah is the most Republican state in the nation. It is to the GOP what DC is to the Democrats. We will probably go the rest of our lives without seeing a liberal or progressive Presidential candidate win in this state.

West Virginia, Mc+15: Another state that Clinton would have put in play. But, like Tennessee and Kentucky this state has fallen off the battleground state chart due to conservative's exploitation of social issues and gun rights during the 90s and 00s.

Wyoming (3), Mc+10: A common threme: Rural Voters. McCain will win here easily.

LEAN MCCAIN, 119 EV:

Alaska (3), MC +10: This state’s GOP is undergoing political upheaval, and Democrats could possibly steal a House and Senate seat thanks to corruption on the part of Republican incumbents. Still, on a national level, this is a Republican state. Obama's campaign insists it will play for Alaska, but the deck is stacked against him.

Arizona (10), Mc+9: McCain can't seem to pull away in his home state. The immigrant influx may keep Obama within single digits, but Obama will never pull closer than 5-6 pts.

Georgia (15), Mc+9: Obama talks about winning Southern states in November because he won them in the primary. But winning a Democratic primary is much easier for a black liberal than winning a general election is. Georgia might be his best shot in the South, but it’s not a very good shot.

Indiana (11), Mc+2: This is technically a toss-up state, but with Bush wins of 16 and 21 points, Indiana has been so solidily Republican for so long I just can't believe it will be in play. However, this year McCain will need to work hard to keep this state in the GOP column. Obama’s advantage is in the cities of Gary and East Chicago, as well as some liberal suburbs. Indianapolis has a high black population. Also, McCain lacks the down-home appeal that made Christian Midwestern voters so drawn to Bush, adding to Obama’s hopes. I just don't see Obama winning this state.

Mississippi (6), Mc+10: This state is very close to being a solid McCain, but Democrats can point to a special election congressional pickup here, as well as a large black population. However, this Deep South state should be safe for McCain with a liberal atop the ticket.

Missouri (11), Mc+4: Some people have this as toss-up as things aren’t looking so rosy for Republicans these days. They lost a U.S. Senate seat in 2006 and are poised to lose the governorship this year. Obama eked out a primary win here on Super Tuesday by winning big in the areas around St. Louis and Kansas City, but he lost badly in the rural regions of the state. His appeal to black voters and suburban voters makes him a real threat, especially if McCain fails to rally Christian conservatives throughout the state. As of now I'm predicting a close McCain victory.

North Carolina (15), Mc+3: Our wonderful tarheel state has not been in play since Jimmy Carter won in the 70s. However, this year polling is consistently close. The influx of young professionals in the Research Triangle Park area and the wine and cheese crowd in Charlotte, as well as the large black population in Northeastern NC is keeping it close. McCain will perform well in the sandhills, down the HWY 70 corridor from Clayton, NC to New Bern, NC, and the mountain west. I suspect McCain will pull a 5+ win thanks to these GOP stronghold areas.

North Dakota (3), Mc+4: Once again, Obama is showing his strength in a historically GOP country. Bush twice won more than 60% here. While McCain may not do as well, he should squeak out a win.

South Carolina (8), Mc+8: The Democratic primary electorate is majority black, but the November electorate is not. Obama can’t win rural whites, and so he can’t win South Carolina.

South Dakota (3), Mc+6: Are there white rural voters in South Dakota? Yes, so McCain can add 3 more to his EV total.

Texas (34), Mc+9: There hasn't been a poll out of Texas since mid-June and at that point it was McCain by 9. While that's alot closer than Bush's wins, it shouldn't get much closer than that. Even with the large urban pockets and latino vote, this conservative state will give McCain the edge.

Obama & McCain Tax Proposals

I found this cool chart online.

So, for anyone out there who is afraid their taxes are going to go up if Obama is elected you may find this interesting. I might be wrong, but I'm almost positive that nobody I know who reads this post makes over $600,000 a year. I do realize that people argue that Obama also proposes raising the capital gains tax, which will hit some people in the $50K+ range, but I believe very strongly that Obama's income tax plan is much more equitable.

Despite consider myself a strong liberal, I do believe very strongly that our Government spends and wastes way too much money, the biggest waste pool being the war in Iraq. However, I also believe we need to restructure our tax system, especially in light of the fact that the Bush Administration is predicting a $490 billion dollar deficit in 2009. That's more money we borrow from China because the Bush Administration has given back to billionaires Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Paris Hilton and Howard Stern an additional $700,000 of their $100 billion dollar fortunes. Obama's plan would bring in an additional $700 billion in taxes over the next 10 years, while McCain's would cost the Treasury $600 billion.

Some people like to ask What Would Jesus Do (WWJD). Well I'm pretty convinced that he would tell all the conservatives complaining about their tax rates to stop striving to make more money and to give it all away and serve the poor and oppressed. So you are going to get no help from him on this issue.

"According to a new analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are both proposing tax plans that would result in cuts for most American families. Obama's plan gives the biggest cuts to those who make the least, while McCain would give the largest cuts to the very wealthy. For the approximately 147,000 families that make up the top 0.1 percent of the income scale, the difference between the two plans is stark. While McCain offers a $269,364 tax cut, Obama would raise their taxes, on average, by $701,885 - a difference of nearly $1 million."

Summertime Update

It's been a few weeks since I've posted a blog. Mainly because things have been so busy, and news out of the political arena has been pretty stagnate the last month. There's been no major news from either campaign other than soundbites and strategic commentary from the news outlets. We've seen Obama move a little towards the center, including his support for the FISA bill (the controversial secret wiretapping program), the Supreme Court ruling overturning the DC gun ban, and his opposition to the Supreme Court ruling that said the death penalty can not be used for child rapists. I disagree with him strongly on the last point. I'm strongly opposed to the death penaly. But Obama's still my guy -- we can't agree on everything! The polls have shown a steady 5 pt lead for Obama. We should see those numbers start to move as we approach the August/September conventions, VPs are selected and the candidates hit the airwaves. I'm actually working on my first "Presidential Prediction" post that will give a state-by-state analysis of where things stand as we move into the intense campaign season of August. Check back in a couple of days.

So, leaving politics behind (at least for a couple weeks, okay probably days) I wanted to share some thoughts on the summer. We recently celebrated the birth of our niece, Mackenna Grace Weisner, Jennifer and Matt's little girl on July 9, 2008. It's such an awesome experience seeing a newborn baby enter the world. People often say, "how can you not believe in God when you see a newborn baby". Well, I'm fully aware of all the reproductive science out there, but what I don't think science can explain is the intense love and connection we as humans have for each other. That love and connection is reiterated and strengthened when we see and experience new life. I am now a proud Uncle Kenny to my nephew Nate (born March, 2006) and my niece Mackenna. I can't wait to get to know Mackenna as she grows. I know she will bring me the same joy I get from watching and helping Nate as he learns and experiences the world around him. Who knows, maybe I'll even teach her the elevator game that Nate and I play (Sorry, you will have to ask my 2 year old nephew Nate for details).

Jess and I celebrated my birthday and the 4th of July in Atlanta last week. We watched a Braves game (they lost to the Phillies) and hung out downtown for a few days. I got Omar Infante's autograph at a mall the next day. He's one of their new players this year. So, that was pretty cool, other than Jess found her a new Braves player to have a crush on. We also toured CNN, the Georgia Aquarium, and loved watching the fireworks in the Centennial Park. We pretty much just enjoyed hanging out with each other and eating good food.

Of course no summer can be complete without a little So You Think You Can Dance. Jess and I are religiously hooked on the dance competition show. The moves these dancers can do are amazing and highly entertaining. Our favorite dancers this year (for any other fans out there) are Joshua, Twitch, Chelsie, Kherrington and Will. I'm all about pursuing your passion, especially when it comes to an outlet to express yourself, whether it's visual art, speaking, videography, wirting, painting, or in this case dance. It reminds me of my highschool days in musical theather and all the dance moves I had to make myself learn. I was not the best dancer in the world, but I always gave it a-go.

The most exciting news around the corner is Jess' trip to Guadalajara, Mexico. She's leaving next Sunday for 5 weeks to study abroad for her Master's in Teaching ESL. We had a going-away party for her Saturday night and we had an awesome mix of friends from Watershed, Jess' work, Raleigh friends and even family. We love spending time with our friends. We feel very fortunate to be surrounded by such fun and loving people.

While we are going to miss seeing each other, Jess is super excited to visit and experience a new place, and to disengage from our Western style of living, even if its just for a little while. I think experiencing a culture different than our own allows us to reflect on the way we live our lives, and put in perspective the things we value. We get so caught up in our day to day activities here in America we often forget that our greatest happiness is defined by our relationships with each other, our God (however you wish to define he, she or it), and our environment. It is so easy for us to place a bubble around ourselves, a bubble made up of fear and apathy towards those different than ourselves. That's one of the things I love about Jess--she shatters that bubble on every opportunity she gets, and is so willing to fully engage new ideas, ways of living, and worldviews. We both put a special value on these new experiences and feel very strongly that Americans can learn a lot from other cultures. I love America and would not want to live in any other country in the world. However, that does not mean I think our values, morals or cultures are necessarily better than every other country. I believe we can constantly improve ourselves by experiencing and learning from others. I believe it is important to hold that view as we engage the world on a political, societal, and individual level. The fabric of our nation is a web of cultures brought over by our ancestors from regions across the globe - Native Americans, Puritan settlers, Spanish nobles, servant workers, Italian and Irish immigrants, African Slaves, Mexican and Asian immigrants, and the list goes on and on. I believe we are a better people and a richer nation when we allow aspects of those cultures and customs to help shape our attitudes, worldviews and our own cultural norms. I know Jess will have a blast in Mexico and I can't wait to visit her in August.

I'm going to try and keep myself busy visiting friends and reading some books. Scott Hofert, One of the paster's at Watershed likes to say that our worldview is shaped and influenced mostly by the people we meet and the books we read. I couldn't agree more. My goal is to read one book on politics, one on social awareness/justice and one book on theology. I'm finishing up The Great Awakening by Jim Wallis (politics), preparing to read C.S. Lewis' Mere Christianity (theology) and I want to finish up the summer with a book entitled, Serve God, Save the Planet: A Christian Call to Action by J. Matthew Sleeth (social awareness). It challenges us to be stewards of God's creations and to see being Green and saving the environment as a Christian responsibility not a left-wing, hippie movement (although that would be reason enough for me). Mere Christianity is unlike anything I've ever read. It is so deep in thought. I have to concentrate on every word.

I can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!