2008 Presidential Election Prediction - 12 Days Left

There are 12 days left until the election and at this point it is fair to say the question is whether Obama will blow McCain out in a landslide or whether it will be a nail biter with the election hanging in the balance by a state or two (most likely CO and VA).

Predicting an election outcome is really just fun and games, as people can change or make up their minds at anytime up until they pull the lever (or push the button if you live in 2008). However, there really is a science behind it and the three most important factors to consider include:

1. Polling Data: The problem with polls are they only show what would happen if the election was held on that particular day. And perhaps more significant, polling results are based on a pollster's prediction of what the demographic turnout will be on election day. That is particularly a problem this year as pollsters try to figure out the increase in turnout among African-Americans, women and young voters who tend to favor Obama. Pollsters are also faced with the task of predicting what the proportional turnout will be among Democrats, Republicans and Independents, considering the sizable increase in Democrat registration this spring and summer. The difference in Obama being up 10 in the polls versus 5 can be traced back to pollsters prorating the predicted turnout differently.
   
   
2. State-by-State Demographics: We know Obama enjoys more support from young voters, minorities and women, and McCain enjoys more support from older voters, rural voters and evangelicals. That makes a big difference in close states like NC and CO, which have totally different demographics.
   
   
3. The third important factor to consider is the campaigns' ground game organization, voter mobilization and base enthusiasm. The word from almost every reputable source is that Obama's community by community ground game is solid and impressive. This will make a big difference in the outcome of close states and can push the results a point or two beyond what the polls predicted. Not only does the voter mobilization make a big difference, but Obama's base is very motivated especially African-Americans and young voters.

The current outlook of the race indicates Obama has a lock on 239 electoral votes and McCain has a lock on 160. (see map below). Note: This map assumes Pennsylvania is in play. However, polling indicates Obama enjoys a 10 point lead, so that really is giving McCain some credit.

(sorry the map is cut off at the ends - My website technical ability is pretty limited)


This leaves 11 toss-up states. There is a great chance that Obama can win all 11 for a 378 electoral vote blow-out. However, the demographics in Montana, Missouri, and Indiana appear to create a ceiling for Obama. The most difficult state to predict at this time is Florida, which has a lot of demographics (older and military voters) that favor McCain. However, the state is hurt hard by the economy and has a large Hispanic population that has trended heavily Obama. The tie will go to Obama because of his ground game. The other state that is hard to predict is North Carolina, which has tons of conservative, rural, older voters. However, there are two factors that I believe will make NC go for Obama: a huge turnout among African Americans and young professionals in the Metro Areas of Charlotte and RTP.

Obama 353
McCain: 185