VP Picks Right Around The Corner

Reports have been flying today that Obama has settled on his VP choice and will roll out an announcement as soon as tomorrow morning. In response, Republican sources are reporting that McCain, in an attempt to off-set Obama's convention boost, will announce his VP selection on Friday, August 29th, the day after the Democratic Convention comes to an end.

It really is a guess who Obama and McCain will select as their running mate. However, history has taught us that VP names are typically leaked in advance so the campaigns can gauge reaction. Based on these leaks Obama is said to be focused on three choices, Evan Bayh, a middle-of-the-road Indiana senator with an extensive Democratic family lineage, Gov. Tim Kaine who leads the Republican-leaning swing state of Virginia, that Obama would like to put in his column in the Nov. 4 election, and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee with extensive foreign policy experience. In preparation for the big announcement and at the suggestion of Laura and Jess, I figured I'd give my thoughts on these choices.

In my opinion, the key for Obama is to go with a relatively safe pick who would reiterate the focus and direction Obama wants to take the country. I don't think Obama needs to pick a risky game-changer like Hillary Clinton or Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. Both of whom would be interesting choices that would help mobilize the female vote. However, both would come with heavy baggage. Clinton and Obama are obviously not going to the prom together and would make a horrible team. Also, would Clinton actually hurt Obama in some of the swing states like Colorado and Virginia? Sebelius would only piss off Clinton supporters in Ohio, Pennslvania and Michigan who would feel Clinton was slighted for the less deserving and inexperienced Sebelius.

Sen. Evan Bayh from Indiana has campaigned a lot with Obama in July and is certainly the safe pick. He would do little harm to Obama and help off-set Obama's liberal record. He is also very popular in the heartland swing states like Indiana, Ohio and Missouri. Bayh was an early backer of Clinton and would be effective in reaching out to disenchanted Clinton supporters. However, Bayh is a conservative Democrat who worked tirelessly in 2002 with Lieberman and McCain to authorize the Iraq War. As someone who is so very anti-war that's a big issue for me. Bayh would be tough to swallow on a personal level, but on a national stage would help considerably in swing states.

Gov. Tim Kaine from the swing state of Virginia was an early supporter of Obama. He is best described as a pro-life, Catholic, moderate Democrat who performed surprisingly well in the traditionally conservative areas of Virginia during his 2005 campaign for Governor. These are areas that McCain will need a big conservative turn out to overcome Obama's huge support in the Richmond area and Northern Virginia suburbs of DC. If Kaine could blunt McCain's support in the conservative areas Obama would have a great chance to win Virginia and the election. The negative is that he could potentially hurt Obama nationally because of his lack of foreign policy experience and his relative lack of results during his brief tenure as Gov of Virginia. I'm afraid that Kaine would provide the GOP plenty of ammo to attack. So while Kaine would reiterate Obama's out-side Washington, change message and would be a very effective and loyal VP, I am afraid he would make the ticket look very inexperienced against McCain, the veteran war-hero.

Sen Joe Biden of Deleware has certainly received the most noise of late after traveling this week to the Russian-occupied Georgia on a diplomatic mission. He has strong working-class roots, is well-respected, and would fill the perceived holes in Obama's foreign policy resume. Biden was originally one of my least favorite for the simple reason that he is old school Washington. He's been a Senator longer than I've been alive and is known for being long-winded and boring. More problematic, Biden voted for the Iraq war six years ago. However, Biden at least began speaking out against the war early, and in his original 2002 vote he tried to push through an amendment that tied the authorization to weapons of mass destruction rather than an open authorization for Bush (it failed). Biden is seasoned as a national campaigner, and an effective surrogate on national media. He excelled in all of the debates back in 2007, and would do well in the VP debate against anyone McCain selects. So other than the early Iraq support and the fact that Biden seems to run contrary to Obama's New-Democrat change message, he appears to be a capable pick.

The bottom line is that each candidate has positives and negatives. If it had no bearing on Obama's chances I would prefer Tim Kaine, only because he appears to share with Obama the desire to change Washington and the direction of the Democratic Party. Also, he and Obama have a genuine friendship and would work very well together in office. However, Kaine is the risky pick. Bayh is my least favorite in that he's so conservative and would not work as well with Obama. However, he would be the biggest asset for Obama in the campaign due to his heartland appeal and ability to impress moderate, independent voters. The liberal blogosphere would definitely disagree with Bayh being helpful, as they have devoted websites campaigning against Obama choosing Bayh due to his conservative record. That leaves Biden somewhere in the middle and by default the best choice in my opinion.