State of The Race

There is no question the race has tightened and has become essentially tied on the national level and on a state-by-state electoral vote count basis. However there is no reason for Obama supports to start freaking out. A new poll from Zogby has McCain up 5pts. Well, rest assured, Zogby is one of the most unreliable polls out there and at the same time, a new Q-poll has Obama up five, Gallup has him up three (after being tied a couple of days ago), Rasmussen has him up two, as does Bloomberg/Times. We must maintain perspective, in the poll of polls, McCain has never crossed the 45 percent threshold while Obama bobs between 45 and 50. Another interesting factor is many of the undecideds continue to be Clinton supporters. There is a much greater chance that these traditional Democrats will stay faithful to the Democratic Party and vote Obama.

Still, after weeks of attacks from McCain and the GOP, Obama has lost a lot of his post-primary lead he enjoyed in June and July. The tightening of the race corresponds with the move to the next phase of the nomination. In the next three weeks we will have VP selections and conventions and the the following phase of the election which will include intense campaigning and the October debates.

The Obama campaign spent July running ads and campaigning hard in traditionally GOP states of Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida with hopes of scoring a knockout on election day. However, Obama will no doubt turn his focus to the true battleground states of New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Obama has in some sense won an early victory by keeping Colorado and Virginia competitive, and maintaining his lead in Michigan, New Mexico and Iowa (all states Obama appears to be likely to win). That's indicative that this is still an election Obama can and probably will win. Assuming Obama will hold the Kerry states (incl. New Hampshire), which is very likely, Obama's path to victory will most likely include one or a combination of these scenarios (270 needed to win):

Kerry States + Win Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. (this would result in a 269-269 tie and the House would give it to Obama)
Kerry States + Win Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (273-265)
Kerry States + Win Iowa and Virginia (272-266)
Kerry States + Win Ohio (272-266)

These are the bare minimum requirements to win. It is very possible that Obama will sweep a majority of the swing states and score a 300+ EV count.

In response to the McCain attacks of July, the Obama campaign said the ad, called "Three Times," will air starting today in Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.